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Posted on Friday, 10.23.2009

Miami Homes, Values will Drop Even More says Survey


A new forecast says prices of Miami homes will take another serious fall in the year to come, even as recent evidence shows South Florida's home values have begun to level out.
Miami will be the biggest loser, among 381 metropolitan areas ranked nationwide, according to a financial information and analysis firm, Fiserv.

The firm predicts the values of Miami homes will plunge another 29.9% by June 2010, on top of price declines of 48% since peaking in 2006. Second-worse was Orlando, with values decreasing 27%.  And in Fort Lauderdale prices are predicted to fall another 26%.

Fiserv predicts the value of homes for sale in Miami will slide another 11.3%.

That means the median home price in Miami would fall to $150,500 by next June and $153,100 in the Fort Lauderdale metro area. The price deductions are calculated from the median price at the end of the second quarter.


The forecast contradicts latest evidence from both Florida Association of Realtors and the highly regarded S&P/Case-Shiller index. Both measures have shown the value of Miami homes for sale softening in South Florida. Fiserv bases its forecast on other economic variables, including interest rates, demographic trends and labor market conditions as well as Case-Shiller data.

A Deerfield Beach-based real estate analyst, Jack McCabe, said the Fiserv forecast was unrealistic. He predicts prices will fall another 10% to 15% regionwide before bottoming out. After that, as the effect of a massive number of foreclosures lingers, they will remain flat for two more years.
 
He agreed, however, that South Florida's housing woes were not over.

McCabe said, ``Distressed properties are going to fuel the inventory pipeline through 2010.''
 
``Because they are distressed, they are going to have the lowest asking prices and they are going to dictate market conditions.''





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